Another great session behind us as we navigated longs early in the morning for a quick rally to halfway point of target up around 4024. Noted in telegram that I would have LIS B/E and wouldn’t want to see prices sell below 4010. Shortly after we hit LIS and deployed shorts which held the remainder of the session. LOD was 3978 only 2 handles below where I said to take some off at 3980! This was a tremendous call as we then made way back up to close the session at 3990. OVN session ES continued up to 3998 before getting stuffed to hit a new low at 3972. Two 20 handle zippers off this level. Market is beginning to catch bid which we are currently trading at 3998 at the time of this post.
Yesterday was a very active session which being patient on shorts paid off. To start we looked early on for 4012 to trade to deploy shorts as we expected price would sell lower and holding below this VAH. S&P traded up to 4004 PM before reversing lower to 3975, a 30 handle selloff. Target for short was 3967 which wasn’t hit but both T1 & T2 (Target 1 & 2) were achieved before covering at T1 off the bounce.
So many updates were sent out in telegram I wouldn’t have time to count. Last two sessions they have sank prices OVN which yesterdays was a 30 handle drop in 30 minutes! Unfortunately they do this and it happens so often you need to just get used to it. Some will trade OVN but for me personally, I value that time to sleep for the cash session. To start off on how yesterday went, 3998 short acted like previous days 4012. we came within 8 handles exactly before reversing. Once market opened we saw another flush lower which hit our 3951 target. In this area I have pointed out many times I see a collapse coming. For week we have sat in this range at the highs and once these longs begin jumping ship we will see a day with massive panic. My hope was that was yesterday as we already had the pace of selling on our side. My short target was too strong so every attempt lower was bought back up with force. Luckily for my system, moving LIS to B/E and even down to T1 locked in gains and took risk off for each trade. The main setup came PM but we also had solid opportunities in the cash session which I sent out on telegram. After a solid bounce at the open I noted how weak stocks were and AAPL 2.08%↑TSLA 1.43%↑ weakness below LOD may bring heavy pressure on ES. Shortly after both stocks cracked lows sending ES to NLOD around 3950s. At 0935 EST I also said 3950s is an area I think buyers will defend prices and that’s exactly what transpired so setting targets at lows was perfect.
Yesterday was a very tough session to navigate as we looked for shorts early on. Many times I warned that both sides have the potential for a major move. Let’s jump into the thesis we had for the session.
“ES Long 3953 > 3989 / Short 3936 > 3890”
Out the gate we opened at 3935.
It was looking good for the start but alarms started to warn of a massive move higher once we dipped into 3936 holding inside value. Reasoning was along with myself there were many shorts looking for the flush lower as most Orderflow traders see the low 3900s LVN. This is a major level and will cause volatility so we will come back to this trade later.
Yesterdays Session
Once stopped out short and acknowledging the trend along with how the profile structure was, taking shorts I had to do with caution. This is why in telegram I said to drop size to half for starter and if we can get back to 3936 we can look to add the rest of the position. Obviously this never came and those were stopped out for small cuts.
In the moment with the stalled rally until 1335 EST, rules were broken with fighting the trend.
This wasn’t shorting a pop but rather stepping in front of a moving train.
Although yesterday was a great session, execution just wasn’t there.
Friday
What a session we had as we called out the back to back trend days on S&P500. Along with futures, stock performed exceptionally well. I have made a new telegram so I don’t have access to previous messages to show what was said. The break of 4022 was a key area to initiate longs giving a 30 handle zipper to close out the week. Now back to the upper end of this range we have sat in all week with key data dropping this week which will be given thoughts below.
