Good morning traders!
Yesterday was a very active session which being patient on shorts paid off. To start we looked early on for 4012 to trade to deploy shorts as we expected price would sell lower and holding below this VAH. S&P traded up to 4004 PM before reversing lower to 3975, a 30 handle selloff. Target for short was 3967 which wasn’t hit but both T1 & T2 (Target 1 & 2) were achieved before covering at T1 off the bounce. I then posted in telegram to be ready for another short setup once it shows itself. This is what was said:
Now rather than giving exact level for T1 I gave a range as I believe this is better for the students trying to figure oh what works. In any trade my targets will always be set at the HVN within the Value areas being traded. Sometimes a little above and sometimes a little below, the key is finding what you like as we may not like to trade the same way. My goal moving forward is to be showing the exact setups during each session. I will start screenshotting charts and explaining what I see. For example the chart posted above I gave context into what I was looking at.
Based on my studies, LVN are nearly always voided trades for me. Most of the time they fizzle out and it’s a false breakout. This is why I will anticipate value area to hold (stay true) and when price goes outside but quickly back in, we get solid setups to trade price back through other side of value (mostly to POC). As of recent we have seen so many false breaks through a VAH / VAL into the next VAH/ VAL only for it to reverse into old value! Whenever this happens the system is bound to have a hit on the winrate. Noted early on this occurs mostly during distribution like we have seen at the highs.
I have with high confidence, a thesis we are distributing and stocks are about to get crushed.
Most WANT this to happen as MOST act like they have many long term positions which is simply false. Plenty of them have bought on the way up with anticipation inflation has been tamed. We have yet to bag all of these buyers and the longer we sit here the more longs that get trapped.
So far 4130 has been a solid swing level and prices have yet to push out of “Pit Stop” noted in the tweet below.
3879 coming before a solid bounce back to 4100s.
By then I will update the thesis and give outlook for the weeks ahead!
Before we jump into the Levels and Events, read below.
Make sure to also read this as this is detrimental to understanding what I do, Volume Profile is the soul of my trading.
Nearly every stock is at the swing level that was provided in the substack last week, go check it out:
