Good morning traders!
Yesterday was an eventful session as our plan along with updates given in the telegram, blossomed into two great setups.
Levels:
First, roughly 30 minutes into the open emini traded up to 4010 breaking over the long level. While there was a small amount of chop, a swift breakout came trading emini all the way up to 4040.
As most of you know by the explanations in the telegram and this substack post: Risk Management , once targets are achieved my LIS (Stop loss) is moved up to B/E. The next time I take off more size I will again move my LIS but this time it will now be in profit no matter what.
Using this system allows for the 4010 long to be taken off in profit no matter what and sets up for the next trade.
Emini sold down to short level 3994 causing a collapse to a LOD 3948.5. Short target was 3951 which net +43 handles.
Both setups combined yesterday net +73 handles.
Just when bulls thought the selling was over, 3994 stuffed the move for a sell back down to 3951 again. Another +43 handles in only 22 minutes.
+116 handle just off yesterdays level on S&P!
At the time of this post we have sold down to 3940 making way to 3880.
Unfortunately plenty of opportunity has been taken out of the session which as of recent these OVN sells are eaten alive at the open. Now with that being said I expect a continuation lower to test the bottom of this 3880 - 4000 value area. As always the goal is to have runners when approaching 3880s for a potential crack of lows and begin trading into the OVN lows of 3830s (3/13/23).
Take a look at the profile on the right side of the screen and notice we have a huge build up of volume then a steep drop off at 3870-3855. The bottom end is called a tail and when on the lower end this indicates very strong buying. I can tell that we tried to move lower outside of value but quickly snapped back above 3880. FOMC is behind us so the catalyst we have wanted all week has came. Everyone is soaking in reality while we noted everything important minutes after it was said in the conference.
One other piece of the puzzle is tech stocks are in question as contenders to purchase TikTok or just suck up the banned users. Yesterday was a rough day 1 as many of the questions asked could only be answered once he was able to get back with his team. The issue with the app is solely the US users data and it was clear TikTok is taking the right steps moving US data only inside the US and handled by US companies, Oracle Cloud. Even though it seems like the US is very serious on the issue, they have attacked the app in the complete wrong way as brought up initially and I think this will blow over. In the end the US gets what they wanted other tan the fact it would be much better if we owned TikTok because the influence behind it.
All being said, once this decision is made on the ban or no ban, tech stocks will see major volatility.
I will keep some focus on this developing story as we go through the session. Upon a decision I think we can see spikes to both upside and downside. This can be a catalyst to also give S&P bid if we start selling in todays session. Remember, two scenarios which we always want to know what can happen on both sides.
Make sure to also read this as this is detrimental to understanding what I do, Volume Profile is the soul of my trading.
