Weekly Outlook 3/20/23
Good evening traders!
Hope you all had a great weekend as I did myself.
Plenty of time put into market analysis this weekend which I cant wait to dive into.
Bank news have surfaced over the weekend and it’s not looking to good ahead.
US strengthen statements on ByteDance with a potential ban while nearly all government officials have cut off access to the app.
As most have seen over on the telegram, I have started building models to review financial statements. This will be accessible to all paid subscribers here on the Substack!
The importance of financial statements is hard to put into words so I will show it overtime and how some companies thrive while others get devoured in debt.
Here is a sample sneak peak into whats to come but note there will be multiple examples along with more charts + reference sheet so you all can fill these out yourselves.
Most have little understanding of the impact of financials to what comes for the future of the company. I gave some guidance this morning so make sure to check it out and get ahead of others.
Nearly all upcoming and present updates are provided in the telegram so make sure to go to this post to not miss out, also turn notifications on to get updates in a timely manner.
Before jumping into my thoughts on the week ahead I would like everyone to go read last weeks recaps. Highly recommend reading these before the Weekly Outlooks as it’s a great refresher into what transpired last week.
Monday
Market sold off before the open nearly hitting my 3823 target. Once I saw price action at the lows I had strong confidence they were going to hold this market bid for a move back to yesterdays close then 3930. From there I sent out a LIVE update in telegram on looking for a move over 3962 for a move back up to 3930s. See below.
This worked out great as we not only rallied up to 3930 but we continued all the way up to 3940 for a 78 handle rally. Overall the session went as planned and we now sit at 3915 at the time of this post, 1 hour before CPI is released.Tuesday
There wasn’t much reason to send out too many updates in the telegram but let me share a few that stood out.
Once I pulled levels for the Daily Plan something was off. $DXY wasn’t dropping lower as S&P was making new highs. Keeping this thought I had strong confidence that NFP + Unemployment would once again stuff price. This blossomed to be a tremendous call as we shaved nearly 70 handles from these highs!
I then gave insights into the WHY the CPI report was short term bullish, nothing more.Wednesday
Other than the failure to budge in cash session, yesterday was another great day for orderflow levels. There was a catalyst fighting us to the upside which killed all selling pressure when attempting new lows. TSLA -1.79%↓ was weak but not nearly enough juice to bring tech down with it. AAPL -0.28%↓ was another stock that started off weak but firmed up once the rest of tech and even semiconductors made way to highs.Thursday
Once again tech holds up the S&P500 along with new funding program for the banks. S&P opened strong with no lots traded below my 894 short target. Shortly after we snapped higher squeezing any shorts at LOD. This came with a clean break of previous days highs for a trip all the way above NFP + Unemployment highs. I first want to touch on one of the charts I posted in the telegram as this is exactly what’s going on right now at 3900s.
Here’s the chart
Looking at lows of 3800 and comparing that to recent swing prices, this is nearly identical. How I take this is I will look for shorts at the highs and longs at the lows.Friday
I noted how we were coming up on strong resistance near 4000. In this I dove into the liquidity problem which was sown in the market structure (profiles). This came to light and sold off +70 handles right from 4000. Not only this but a key factor came into play which offered a robust sell in S&P500, tech began to rollover. Most already know the strength seen in tech which has held up the market for over a week now! The early signs of sell were taken resulting in great positioning for the week ahead.
The main focus of Tech has been semis + $META. No new TikTok news over the weekend which can be taken as bullish in tech as no buyers yet have been solidified sparking possibilities of a ban in US.
More to come in the week ahead.Upcoming Events
Monday: -
Tuesday: FOMC 1000 EST
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC meets eight times a year to assess the current state of the US economy and to decide on the appropriate monetary policy for the future. The purpose of the meeting is to determine the direction of interest rates and other monetary policies that will be adopted by the Federal Reserve. The FOMC also releases statements after each meeting to inform the public of their decisions.Wednesday: FOMC 1400 EST + Powell Speaks (FOMC) 1430 EST
Thursday: -
Friday: PMI 0945 EST
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on a monthly basis. The PMI is an important economic indicator as it reflects the overall health of the manufacturing sector and provides an indication of future economic activity.The week ahead is bland other than FOMC which will cause major volatility as we tune into the FEDs rate decision. Over the week we have seen swings in both 25bps and 50bps, either hike will bring direction.
Earnings
