Wednesday Update 12/28/22

Value holds once again

Tuesday 12/27/22 Session

Now that we have an idea what todays session looked like, let’s have a look at what we expected going into today. ES opened at 3870 which was inside our Blue Value Area noted in the Weekly Outlook.

Blue: 3825 - 3880 / POC 3860

Price did not go a tick below either side of this value area while also nearly moving directly off each side in cash session today. Not only was the value area true in terms of respecting VAH & VAL with little MAE, but we called out the LOD while explaining this value area. Look below.

Looking for momentum to continue up into 3875 before a retracement back to 3837.

Market opens within a few handles of 3875 causing avalanche sell down directly off 3837 setting LOD. Price bounces all the way back to 3875 with two failed attempts to even tag 3875. Could you ask for any better levels? Calling out Shorts at HOD then calling out longs at LOD. You will not find levels like this anywhere else but looking at Volume Profiles. To add to this great call on emini, we noted 3860 POC which all day was a magnet level.

We hit 3837, now what? Is this a level we would want to buy again or should we avoid?

The answer to this was also in the Weekly Outlook which went like

I think we sell lower this week back below 3800 to then test my value shift target provided in last weeks Tuesday Weekly Outlook Update. I will add another zone below this one on a plan for when prices begin to venture lower. Looking to take one long attempt early in the week off 3830 but not a fan of buying down here anymore.

Now that we have sold down to my 3837 buyer area, I don’t believe this will hold the next time we attempt to sell. 3816-3830s was noted over a week ago for being a major LVN and I stated I want to see this fill in this week as we lack events. Avoiding trading here has steered clear of painful trades. All these decisions I make on levels will be learned as you begin using Volume Profile.

Weekly Profile goes nearly unchanged other than value filling. 3825-3880 is a perfect node which is giving great examples on my exact trading strategy.

What we have in store for tomorrow seems to be a short setup thinking we push a little above previous day high up around 3875-80. If a rally continues through here I will cut at 3890 and look to reload shorts higher at 3900-15. For live updates on these decisions make sure to catch me over on twitter!

Going into tomorrow, same Blue Value Area will be in play

Blue: 3825 - 3880 / POC 3860

Looking for momentum to continue up into 3875 before a retracement back to 3837. I think we sell lower this week back below 3800 to then test my value shift target provided in last weeks Tuesday Weekly Outlook Update. I will add another zone below this one on a plan for when prices begin to venture lower. Looking to take one long attempt early in the week off 3830 but not a fan of buying down here anymore.

Catch everyone on Twitter!

-Flint

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