Friday Update 12/30/22

Thursday 12/29/22 Session

Looking back at what we predicted for todays session…

Looking ahead, I favor a break of lower 3813 to get short. At this point with failure to take out 3900 and hold, a sell below 3800 will be coming shortly. With no events to take us into a direction I believe we will continue this sell lower and break last week lows.

Key level for tomorrows session will be 3813 with anticipation this break lower for a great short opportunity! Hope everyone had a great day and look forward to seeing you over on twitter.

Initially, I expected price to drop below 3,813 in today's session and open up value lower below 3,800. However, during the OVN (overnight session), I noticed that the market traded down to the low 3,800s but there were no sellers pressing prices. This led to a good trade opportunity in the cash session, as the market offered a long position at 3,828.

I set your targets around the point of control (POC) at 3,862, which were hit. I also noted that, based on the weekly outlook, the ~3,880 level has been a key area where sellers have consistently stepped in. Given that the price opened at 3,835 in the cash session, this determined that going short was not a viable option.

Overall, the updated plan did not go as expected initially OVN, but it ultimately worked out perfectly. Now I’m considering what may happen at the 3,880 level.

What was noted on this level before and is a change to the thesis justified?

Blue: 3825 - 3880 / POC 3860

Looking for momentum to continue up into 3875 before a retracement back to 3837. I think we sell lower this week back below 3800 to then test my value shift target provided in last weeks Tuesday Weekly Outlook Update. I will add another zone below this one on a plan for when prices begin to venture lower. Looking to take one long attempt early in the week off 3830 but not a fan of buying down here anymore.