Welcome to the first full week of 2026. While we didn’t post a weekly edition last week due to the holiday break, the structural roadmap we left behind continued to perform with high-level precision. We are seeing a market that is respecting established value areas while certain sectors, particularly Energy, are beginning to flash major signals.
The Week in Review
The performance over the holidays was exceptional. Our prior levels held the line, with the S&P 500 selling off from the 6965 Value Area High (VAH) for a clean 100-handle drop. In our Friday update, we specifically targeted a sell from the 6931 Point of Control (POC) down to 6889. That move delivered 32 handles of downside, followed by a bounce from our long level at 6889. Despite some late-week pressure, the index closed the week 11 handles higher than that volume shelf.
Outside of the futures market, our watchlist is delivering significant alpha. ASX has nearly cleared the 17 handle, marking a 41% gain since our entry at 12. CBLL is maintaining its strength at highs, holding onto a 100% gain from our initial long signal. One standout to watch this week is SHEL. After calling out the influx of Oil and Energy stocks hitting our scanners, SHEL is set to open at fresh all-time highs. This could be the spark for a multi-week rally across the entire sector.
Big Picture (Macro)
The broader trend for the S&P 500 (SPY) remains firmly bullish. We are holding weekly closes above both the 10-week and 21-week EMAs. As long as the 10-week EMA (currently 678.24) holds on a closing basis, the path of least resistance is up. If we were to lose that level, I’d expect a swift 100-handle move down to the 21-week EMA at 664.48.
The NASDAQ (QQQ) mirrors this setup but with slightly more volatility. It is also holding above its 10-week EMA (612.18) and 21-week EMA (598.57). Tech remains in an uptrend, but be aware that a weekly close below the 10-week EMA would open the door for a much sharper correction—potentially 440 handles—down to the 21-week EMA. For now, the “buy the dip” regime is still in effect.
Economic Calendar
This is the first “real” week of 2026, and the data calendar is packed. We move from manufacturing sentiment early in the week to the heavy-hitting labor data by Friday.
Monday: Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: Quiet / No major data.
Wednesday: Services PMI and JOLTs Job Openings
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate
Friday is the main event. Unemployment will set the tone for how the Fed views the labor market in this new year, so expect heightened volatility heading into the weekend.
