Welcome back everyone!
Let’s kick off by covering the events lined up for this week. All key releases are scheduled for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. On Wednesday, we have a press conference that will address the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Personally, I do not expect a cut this time around and anticipate a rate cut in September instead. If we do see a cut this week, I think the market will experience a sharp selloff into the end of the week. Otherwise, the market is likely to head higher, aiming to achieve the 6000 S&P target I set before the rate cuts begin.
On Thursday, the Manufacturing PMI will be released, which is currently on a downtrend, reading below 50. We are seeing a decline in manufacturing activity, which is not significantly impacting the economy as we observe decreasing inflation and increasing GDP. I will not pay close attention to this release, but it may become important after September.
On Friday, the unemployment rate will be released. This has seen sharp increases in the last three months, pushing it above 4%. I think this is not having a large impact at the moment since GDP is experiencing a significant increase. The key takeaway from this data is whether we see an acceleration into September that could influence a rate cut or an acceleration after the cuts begin. While the latter is unlikely, it needs to be noted as inflation could potentially roar back and bring maximum pain to consumers.
That is all for now; the rest of my analysis will be included below!