Daily Plan 9.19.23
Markets Close Unchanged - What’s Next?
Good evening, readers!
Another phenomenal trading session is behind us, marked by a significant gap down to commence the day. Once more, Nvidia stood out, claiming the top spot with a robust sell-off, dropping almost 20 handles from the previous day's close. Not to be left out, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also demonstrated noteworthy activity, registering a new low when compared to last week's range.
Several other stocks that were on my radar followed a similar trend. Alibaba, Netflix, Boeing, Broadcom, Adobe, and Tesla all recorded new lows. Interestingly, despite the initial sell-offs, most of these stocks managed to recover to prices above their Friday's closes. This market behavior presented traders with fantastic opportunities, especially depending on the time frame of the contracts they were utilizing. Specifically regarding the Nvidia LEAPS I had highlighted, the stock plummeted by 80 handles, with two significant drops from the 500 mark. This provided traders ample opportunity to manage their positions, whether they decided to stick with the LEAPS or transition to Weeklies.
The Emini, in contrast, had a relatively uneventful session, except for its premarket activity, which most traders typically avoid. However, when we shift our focus to the Nasdaq, we observed a massive rally on multiple occasions, originating precisely from my 15365 level. Just 24 minutes post the market's opening, this level generated a surge of over 130 handles, with another spike observed shortly after. This set the Low of Day (LOD) right at my predetermined level. Subsequently, another jump resulted in an additional 100 handles, culminating in a remarkable 230 handle session.
On the commodities front, gold soared, meeting my target and maintaining its position throughout the session before advancing further. This surge witnessed significant trade volumes in the key value areas, detailed in the section below. Meanwhile, oil underwent some volatile price movements but eventually rallied beyond the 90.28 level, peaking at 91.10, which translates to a gain of 70 pips.
For daily levels, significant movements were observed from the key benchmarks set the previous night. Apple, for instance, surged on the back of the USB-C news, resulting in a quick 3 handle rally before reverting to the long levels and achieving new session highs. AMD experienced a 2.5 handle decline, but reversed its course between the long and short levels. Microsoft, continuing its trend from last week, declined by 4 handles. Early in the day, Amazon couldn't make significant headway and witnessed a 2 handle drop, ending near its session lows. In contrast, Google had a dynamic rally, adding over 1.7 handles within the first hour of trading.
Tesla marked the High of Day (HOD) at the 271.38 short level, followed by a 7 handle dip to 264. This strong selling activity echoed Friday's momentum. Interestingly, my long-term target for Eli Lilly acted as a formidable resistance, resulting in a 36 handle dip across three sessions. This situation mirrors what we observed with Nvidia, but in the Health Care sector. Broadcom is still maintaining its position above my pivotal 836 support level, provided weeks ago. Its current trajectory suggests a downward trend, and I'll be closely monitoring this for any sharp downward movements. On Adobe, my swing level prediction in Flow State #44 was spot on, as it established the HOD at 534.05. While a slight upward movement might be on the horizon, this remains one of the primary stocks I'm tracking this week. In a previous week, Alibaba's rally stopped just short of my 90 level, which accurately predicted the upward bounce, missing my 84 target by a mere handle.
Everywhere we turn, we're witnessing a slew of victories based on order flow levels. And yet, the interest rate decision remains pending. As dynamic as this week has begun, a plethora of business activities awaits. To remain updated, I recommend subscribing, so you don't miss crucial analysis leading into the Interest Rate decision and FOMC. I will also be providing a recap analysis, detailing the implications of the rate hike and the Federal Reserve's stance on future prospects. A revision to the future projections on the dot plot is imminent, which will likely be the talk of the town. For those utilizing the free subscription, I regularly post data sourced from the COT reports, and the Volume Profile market structure, both on a daily and monthly basis. I also explain this data and share what I'll be keenly watching, in addition to the daily levels of stocks I'm monitoring. Remember, the free previews merely skim the surface of the plethora of insights I offer. The real meat of the analysis lies behind the paywalls.
As always, I sincerely hope you find value in this read. My goal is to arm you with the tools and mindset required to navigate the daily intricacies of the market. Now, let's dive deeper into the analysis!