Good morning traders!
Todays plan will be shorter as we only need to update how we have traded inside this value area 4092 - 4192 / POC 4177. From early in the week selling off of 4177 nearly to the handle! To then selling all the way down to 4092 nearly to the handle! Not only was this picture perfect for the volume profile traders but navigating through the economic releases was the other half of the puzzle. Here is some updates sent out in the telegram.
Seeing a decline is exactly as we want as the FED is looking for a slow down is economic activity. Currently consumers willing to spend every last penny to buy whatever they want and this has dragged on far longer than anyone has anticipated. As of recently, Powell said tighter credit conditions will be what brings down inflation and we may start seeing some of this data reflect soon.
I do think it will be taken as bad and we may sell for a session but it will be realized and keep emini rangebound for the weeks ahead. Inflation is sticky and it will need a crisis to get even close to our 2% goal. Even with this said I believe the floor on inflation has been raised as the supply of USD has shot up tremendously in last 3 years. This is why I think the FED is in fact closer to their goal then it may seem. As if most of the traders believe that we can actually bring inflation to pre-COVID levels. Impossible unless you burn the supply of USD created.
This is Hyperinflation which is not transitory!
Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation measures the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.
That being said, we are going to have to deal with this higher floor from now on and I do think once we recover from this we will see jumps in wages as many Americans will realize all the prices have remained higher. All the stimulus that we have warned about will start to really show soon.
Before jumping into todays levels lets first see how our stocks performed.
Stock Performance
AAPL- Short level was HOD with 4 handle selloff
TSLA - Short level was HOD with 8 handle selloff
NVDA - Little budge above short level with 4 handle selloff
MSFT - Broke short level for 4 handle selloff
AMZN - Short level HOD with 3 handle selloff
AMD - Short level HOD with 3 handle selloff
GOOGL - Short level nearly HOD with 2 handle selloff
META - Short level nearly HOD with 4 handle selloff
EVERY SINGLE STOCK ACHIEVED SHORT TARGET