Good morning traders!
Another robust session in the books as we navigated both longs and shorts throughout the session.
To start the post I want to touch on yesterdays plan and how it blossomed. Note we had JOLTS report 30 minutes after the open. Here were the levels and then I will give the context to them.
The plan alone worked out well but how we deployed our positions and moved LIS inside the telegram allows subscribers to see how I would treat these positions. The Risk Management Futures post is key for this as I dive deep into this system which is very effective while also simple. Below I will show in order how we navigated each of the 3 trades.
4150 Long
T1 hit for a 12 handle zipper to start off the session with even little to no dip below 4150 as expected. The JOLTS numbers came out good but I was not a fan of how little the factory orders declined. As I have said many times, the key moving forward is to see a drop in demand as this can bring relief to prices. This was below expectations but still nothing compared to the previous decline of -1.6%.
U.S FACTORY ORDERS (MOM) (FEB) ACTUAL: -0.7% VS -1.6% PREVIOUS; EST -0.5%
U.S DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (FEB F) ACTUAL: -1.0% VS -1.0% PREVIOUS; EST -1.0%
U.S JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (FEB) ACTUAL: 9931K VS 10824K PREVIOUS; EST 10500KJob openings we saw a larger drop than expected and I will say this is adding fuel for the Bulls even after selling 60 handles from 4170s. In the telegram I give live coverage of these events with quick thoughts. For example,
After noting this I was ready for another long which came but ended up being B/E trade. While sending the update out at 4146 and trading up 8 handles to 4154, I was looking for a move higher to NHOD. LIS was B/E so this trade was cut and I moved on to a potential short below 4139.
Shortly after there was a sharp move lower below 4139 selling all the way down to our 4113 target.
A 26 handle zipper!
Not only this but we bounced here then sold back down again from short level. This all came out to be a near picture perfect session for levels and the complimentary updates to help keep level head.
This week has nonstop been a printing machine with no signs of volatility to let up yet. Add in another event and we may get further direction from yesterdays session.
Up or down?
Let’s jump into market structure first to see how value developed yesterday…
Stock Performance (I will add much more to these stock recaps starting next week)
AAPL- remained inside levels w/ bounce off long level
TSLA - long target nearly marks HOD
NVDA - gapping down 5 handles nearly to short target
MSFT - bounced directly off long level
AMZN - long level was LOD with bounce nearly hitting target
AMD - EOD bounce off long level
GOOGL - long target hit on AI news for +3 handles
META - no sell down to long level but held for move nearly to target