Good morning traders!
Yesterdays session was a total change from what we have seen for the last 4 weeks.
From shorting VAH up at 4192 to longs at VAL 4095, these have worked plenty of times but came to an end yesterday. Use this chart as reference of the value area and the moves off highs and lows.
Looking back we snapped lower outside of the value area which more times than not will open up value lower for price discovery. This was not what panned out and we saw a move through VAL 3 times with a fourth coming OVN post ER. Anytime price jumps around between a major LVN it becomes very hard to execute longs and shorts which is why I decided to sit on hands for most of the session and see how we close.
4095 is a key level for bulls to defend and we have seen one solid attempt to defend these prices. Failed attempt leads me to believe we want to venture back up to sellers around 4130s.
My expectation for the session will be to defend VAL 4095 for a move back up to 4130s.
Upon breaking below 4085 I will look for a move down into next value area (4048 VAH).
Make sure to be inside the telegram to not miss out any updates and thoughts during the session!
Event
GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an index used to measure the total value of goods and services produced in an economy over a given period of time. It is released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a quarterly basis. The GDP is an important economic indicator as it reflects changes in overall economic activity.FED moved forecast down to 1.5% from 2.5% and the actual comes in at 1.1%! A massive decline which is good to see for a market that needs to contract. Where this gets concerning is in the data release below. An increase in PCE while a slowing in GDP is a major red flag as consumers are struggling with spending already and now will see a continuation of higher prices. Remember PCE is the prices of goods and services in households, the people are going to really feel these increases moving forward. At some point the consumer will budge and there will be a massive collapse in spending.
PCE
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is an index used to measure the changes in the price level of goods and services consumed by households. It is released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis. The PCE is an important economic indicator as it reflects changes in overall spending patterns in the economy.Earnings
Value Areas
4095 - 4192 / POC 4153
3880 - 4048 / POC 3951
3823 - 3878 / POC 3862
