Good morning traders!
Tremendous start to the week as the VAL (Value Area Low) 4095 remains intact bringing a move up to our Long Target 4130.
Throughout the session, along with every session, updates were sent out live in the telegram updating not only the levels but the thought process behind the session. Every subscriber should be taking advantage of the add on feature (Telegram) to help understand my thoughts not only on Volume Profile but Macro thesis too. These last few weeks have shown that keeping a level head and listening to the goals of the Fed will better help your trades no matter the timeframe. I would give examples of the data takes but we have been on the right side of every single one recently. Flawless!
On the chart below you will see the long level (green line) along with a red area (background) which is the Value Area provided in yesterdays Weekly Outlook.
VAL 4095 once again holds emini up and keeping an approach of value will stay true until broken, this has caught every single dip here with many pushes for over 20 handles minimum. Let’s take a quick look into yesterdays outlook to see what the game plan was to start off the weak and how it played out.
Moving forward with emini this week I will look for the same range to hold until later in the week. CPI will be the catalyst to push prices out of this range whether to the upside or downside. As we started to see demand begin to dry up, this in turn should bring relief to inflation. Making this a highly anticipated release bringing more than likely a surge in volume & volatility.
Right now price still favors a break of upside as the 300 handle rally remains in tact. Upon breaking 4080s post CPI I will in now way be bullish here and look for a move lower to 3880s.
As we set yesterdays long at 4103 with anticipation VAL would remain valid (hold above), we put it above VAL by 8 handles as at the VAL & VAH there is very little volume. Odds to get the fill drop as more times than not we will tap the VAH / VAL or get close to it then move to the other side of value. This is why I moved the level a bit higher above the VAL.
Many will hate to trade ranges but remember most days we sit rangebound so spotting the upper and lower end is key to capitalize on a daily and weekly basis. When talking about Volume Profile I will always trade based on the market holding value and will look for catalysts when breaking out of value.
Last week value was 4095 - 4177 and so far it is the same this week. I have been very specific on the area of interest for me and sticking with it has allowed me to stay on right side of the market.
All trades proven wrong is simply a rejection of value.
Earnings
Value Areas
4095 - 4192 / POC 4177
3880 - 4048 / POC 3953
3823 - 3878 / POC 3862
