For the readers I want to point out that for todays levels I will be using the chart that is below ($ES) which is more zoomed in. Reason being is if you zoom out you will see expansion of current value area but it will be very hard to spot any area where you can say buyers or sellers are really in control. Through a thick profile expect a long session of chop unless that session comes with an event.
Mainly from this chart I want to see a continuation of sell lower into 3950 and test buyers that were present last week.
Powell spoke yesterday and this was not anything I want to hear as an American.
Two points caught my ears and I think the FED has been caught showing bluff on the data.
Mr. Kennedy was one you need to give a listen to as his questions are what started to uncover the mess that the FED is sweeping under. First, he made remarks on the fact unemployment is good right now but soon we will see a major wave of layoffs with the current data. Inflation is inching back higher after a slow decline. A strong move higher met with a 50bps increase could really put pressure on businesses as demand continues to dry up. In turn they will need to layoffs the workers and may of the new job growth seen could actually disappear quite fast. The data released while great in the short term, just doesn’t give enough indication that the storm has passed. The possibility of this making a U turn has always been in the air and the storm has begun to move towards us.
The second remarks was about what the FEDs goal is moving forward with inflation. As all of us know the long term target on inflation is below 2%. Yet when asked for a roadmap and if everything going on is deflation or disinflation, Powell waited before coming forward on DISINFLATION.
A major loss for Bulls as the higher for longer perspective has been revealed crystal clear. Moving forward we will keep very close eye on the coming data releases and begin to have an estimate of what the FED will plan on doing at the next FOMC meeting.
Make sure to also read this as this is detrimental to understanding what I do, Volume Profile is the soul of my trading.
Nearly every stock is at the swing level that was provided in the substack last week, go check it out:
