Good morning traders!
Hope everyone enjoyed the Weekly Outlook, not too much to note as I want to see these economic releases drop for good indication of the health of the economy.
Consumer Credit on Tuesday which is expected to come in double of what the last print was. The is horrific news as consumers are nonstop spending while the FED is doing everything they can to stop it. A positive is what is being bought compared to start of the pandemic of even pushing into when we started stimulus.
The FED has addressed plenty of times at FOMC meetings that they will be putting focus on unemployment. This week on Friday we have NFP + Unemployment so we may see some volatility pick up at the end of the week.
To add to this, watch how China economy reacts to reopening along with the citizens. I expected them to be up in arms against China but this part of the story has been silent. Citizens may just be happy to finally go back to their somewhat normal lives. We also have a looming crisis waiting in China that will need attention.
Demographics.
Have a look.
Many think this means nothing and we should only pay attention to chart. While this can be true for intraday moves, this will allow us to remain on right side of market during panic.
Take a look at the future projections for China. Do you think they will be able to keep up with production and consumption? 10 years from now this can very well be a crisis for China unless they start to bring people over from other countries.
To show what a robust demographic will look like is Mexico! Only problem is the drop off in the youth where we want to see this keep pushing outward like a pyramid.
You want the working force getting stronger and increasing in size or else the ones above get hit very hard later on when there’s nobody to support their needs.
I will stay in tune with this and come forward when any notable changes happen. Overall US is doing great in terms of demographics but just because it’s US doesn’t mean others will not impact our markets. Any supplies shortages that come will once again put CPI on fire.
This catalyst is a multiyear build up, it will be a crisis if overlooked as history WILL repeat itself!
Outside of this we just got news on Tesla pursuing more price cuts but now on the Model S & X (all trims).
The takeaway from this will be can the other car companies make an EV that hits the Tax Credit threshold? If not then the government will have to cut it out completely or raise it again! If the X and S qualify, Tesla will take over the entire market. The government is too stupid to realize the tax credit was pushed when no other companies were making a reliable EV! Major win for TSLA 0.00%↑
Make sure to also read this as this is detrimental to understanding what I do, Volume Profile is the soul of my trading.
Nearly every stock is at the swing level that was provided in the substack last week, go check it out:
