Daily Plan 3.5.24

Welcome back everyone!

Let's kick this off by recapping how the session went for Indices, Commodities, and Stocks, and then move on to what we have in store for tomorrow's session.

Indices:

Today once again favored the readers, with both the Emini and Nasdaq finding support at the long levels. The Emini remained resilient, nearly reaching the 5160 long target but falling just short before selling right back down. Conversely, the Nasdaq experienced a minor push up from the long level before selling through the lows. Overall, it was a challenging session for those who weren't looking to take profit into the spike observed at 2:00 pm ET. Apart from the Nasdaq, the Emini continues to hold upper structure, suggesting the potential for another rally back up to today's highs.

Commodities:

Gold once again dominated the session with a significant rally off the previous day's close. This setup is proving accurate, as I warned that Gold was due for a substantial upside move. We are now at the doorstep of ATH (All-Time High), but I must note that the positioning on the COT (Commitment of Traders) Report currently does not indicate a breakout to 2800, as I anticipate. Over the coming weeks, I will closely monitor this to see if there is potential for a short position to re-enter within the yearly range near ATH. On the COT Report, a significant decrease in positioning may signal a shift where Commercials go long while Large and Small speculators flip short. Once this happens, we tend to observe a high being reached followed by sharp selling. My main focus will be on monitoring this trend and identifying any substantial decrease in positioning.

Outside of Gold, Oil experienced a shaky session, failing to break above the long level before selling all the way down through the short level but stopping short of the target. Price sold down into the swing value area, which will dictate the direction of the next move. If we remain below the VAH (Value Area High), I anticipate price will sell down to the POC (Point of Control), while a break above the VAH could signal a potential new swing high. We currently have a picture-perfect setup heading into the rest of the week.

Stocks:

AAPL collapsed today following the failed breakout on Friday above the swing VAH. Price gapped down right back into the value area, bringing 6 handles of downside in a single session. Additionally, the swing short target at 173.81 has been achieved, yielding just under 20 handles of downside from the 192 short level. It's a picture-perfect call as the indices push higher at ATH but fail to find a bid. GOOGL experienced a similar scenario, with a gap down in price. Early on, price dropped below the short level, offering 4 handles of downside in today's session. These two stocks could see further downside if the indices reverse off the highs, so I will continue to monitor them closely. Lastly, TSLA witnessed a significant intraday move, resulting in over 14 handles of selling from Friday's close. While we are witnessing some downside in these three stocks, there is still plenty of upside potential with the strength in the indices.

Once again, the semiconductor sector had a phenomenal session, with NVDA outperforming AMD. NVDA found support at 817 from Friday's session, leading to a massive gap up with continuation throughout the day. Price surged, forming a clear trend of higher lows and higher highs. This momentum has now caught up to AMD, with both experiencing substantial rallies in option contracts. Turning to AMD, price continued its upward trajectory from last week but encountered resistance at 210. This stock is entering parabolic territory, with the potential for spikes up to 250. A similar setup is emerging for AMZN. Overall, these two stocks remain the primary focus for bulls as index prices continue to rise. I anticipate this focus will persist until we see the Emini and Nasdaq begin to ease off from their highs. MSFT and META initially saw upside at the open but ultimately peaked shortly afterward, setting the high of the day early on.

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