Daily Plan 3.28.24
Welcome back everyone!
First, we will cover the recap for today's session, then move on to tomorrow's analysis.
Indices:
The Emini experienced a significant rally into the close, originating precisely from the 5277 long level. As the session neared its end, prices surged all the way up to the target at 5305, marking a 28-handle gain and capturing nearly all the upside potential for the session. As anticipated, the dip was expected to be bought, but it took two days of stagnant price movement to accomplish this. Yesterday's selling appeared to be a mere bluff, as evidenced by a robust bounce overnight (OVN), followed by another during today's cash session.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq had a comparatively weaker session, only finding opportunities below the short level at 18481, resulting in a net 103-handle downside movement below that level. Although the price failed to reach the short target, the session provided ample volatility to capitalize on. This divergence between the Nasdaq's weakness and the Emini's strength raises a cautionary flag. It's apparent that tech stocks are exerting downward pressure on the Nasdaq, a trend I highlighted earlier on X this morning. Money appears to be flowing out of these companies, fueling selling pressure and capping gains on the Nasdaq.
Conversely, the Emini continues to hold strong at its highs, demonstrating clear resilience. Given this dynamic, it's advisable for long positions to focus on the Emini until the Nasdaq manages to catch up in strength.
Commodities:
Oil saw a deceleration today following a strong start to the week. Prices failed to reach either the long or short targets, as the market remained balanced within the low volume node (LVN) for almost the entire session. In tomorrow's session, we'll delve into whether there was sufficient volume injected into the LVN to warrant a change in levels. If not, the levels will remain unchanged, as the trading opportunity remains active.
Unlike oil, gold experienced another explosive session, with the long level serving as crucial support this morning. Prices managed to hold above the long level and surged directly towards the long target, resulting in a net gain of 20 handles to the upside. Remarkably, the long target at 2017 ended up marking the high of the day, underscoring the precision that volume profile analysis can provide.
Stocks:
AAPL and AMZN emerged as the top performers today, standing out as the only stocks to find support at the long level and drive significant upside moves. Meanwhile, TSLA faced some selling pressure below the long level but managed to rebound strongly, surpassing the level for a decent upside move. However, semiconductor weakness persisted as AMD and NVDA experienced declines, with NVDA shedding over 40 handles from the short level.
Furthermore, MSFT and META witnessed substantial selling below the short levels, resulting in significant moves within option contracts as well as common shares.
On a different note, CTAS delivered robust earnings that surpassed expectations, surpassing the target of 664. Prices surged as high as 704, marking an impressive gain of over 70 handles in a single session.
Now let’s move on to the thoughts posted for tomorrows session!