Daily Plan 3.15.24
Welcome back everyone!
Let’s kick off todays post with a recap of the session and then move on to my thoughts coming into play tomorrow.
Indices:
Today unfolded remarkably well, with both the Emini and Nasdaq trading below the short levels as anticipated. While the Emini exhibited more weakness and successfully reached the short target, the Nasdaq fell slightly short. This discrepancy can be attributed to the resilience observed in the tech sector, with over half of the stocks demonstrating strength.
For the stocks that experienced selling pressure, such as TSLA and AMD, we capitalized on solid risk-reward setups, yielding multiple hundreds of percent upside to contracts. Turning to futures, the Emini managed to sell below the 5193 short target, and as predicted in the update on X, it continued to sell further. This development marked the emergence of a strong short setup, with the short level serving as a key resistance throughout the entire session.
Commodities:
Oil broke above the VAH as I had anticipated, initiating another robust rally up to the target of 80.61, which subsequently served as a pivotal support level for another 100-pip rally. This commodity has exhibited significant volatility, and we have successfully capitalized on it every day. I believe that volatility will continue to remain elevated as we move into the coming weeks.
Gold once again succumbed to weakness, with sellers pushing prices below the 2168 short level, resulting in an 11-handle downside. Volatility has remained subdued ever since the multi-week higher highs came to an end. As I've been mentioning, sellers are accumulating positions in this market, and I anticipate further downside from what we have recently observed.
The current selling pressure can be attributed to the strength seen in the CPI and PPI reports released earlier in the week. We may not witness a further extension of this rally until the Fed alters its stance on interest rates, which is contingent upon a weakening CPI and PPI.
Stocks:
NVDA, AMD, and TSLA all exhibited weakness in the session, being the only stocks to break below the short level early on. This ultimately led to a downturn for these stocks today, as I had noted that TSLA and AMD contracts could potentially experience significant movements in our favor. TSLA puts have surged to 7, which I had recommended at 0.90, while AMD, which I suggested at 1.4, is now trading over 4! This session exemplifies a textbook case of selling, providing ample opportunities leading into the end of the week.
On the flip side, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META all witnessed strong rallies from the long level, offering equal opportunities, but on the upside. We are witnessing a compelling demonstration of shorting weak stocks during their periods of weakness, and longing strong stocks during their moments of strength.
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