Welcome back, everyone.
Yesterday was yet another great session for our S&P levels. We saw another move from the 6974 value area low (VAL) bringing a rally up to 7000. Sellers then stepped in, taking price through the low-volume node (LVN) and into the lower value area. At the time of typing this post, we have bounced back into the upper value area.
All week we have utilized the same two key levels: the 6974 VAL and the 6968 value area high (VAH). Once again, we will lean on these same levels for today’s session. For this reason, I will be releasing this post for free to all.
An important data release comes out today: the unemployment rate. The previous release was at 4.4% with a consensus of 4.5%. I think this data really only matters if we see an uptick in the range of 4.6% to 4.7%. If the number is unchanged, the market will likely continue to balance, and we will simply turn back to the value areas for direction.
Two stocks are on my radar this week with one being a short and the other a long.
Nvidia (NVDA): This stock recently hit my target at 190. Plenty of sellers remain at this level, so I want to see a break back down to 175. As long as price doesn’t close above 191, I like this setup. Since this is a shorter timeframe play, I want to utilize the March 13, 2026, 180 Puts. We may see some upside tomorrow, so if these contracts can move back to the 4.80–5.30 range, they would be appealing.
Microsoft (MSFT): This reclaimed support in yesterday’s session and is setting up for a large rebound. Conservatively, this can rally up to 443 in the near term. Ultimately, I expect Microsoft to move back up to all-time highs later this year.
Longer-term: The January 15, 2027, 450 Calls at roughly 35.00 may work.
Shorter-term: The April 17, 2026, 430 Calls at roughly 10.00 look good for a move to 443. Regardless of the expiration chosen, each captures upside with a strict Line in the Sand (LIS) at 400.
S&P Levels
Since we are currently sitting in the same two value areas we have traded in for the last few months, the explanation of this post will be brief.
Looking at the volume profile structure, we can see that volume continues to build inside the upper value area. On top of that, a low-volume node (LVN) remains around the 6973 level. For this market to show strength, we will need price to remain above this LVN. The opposite applies to weakness: if price is below the LVN, we can expect a move back down to the point of control (POC) at 6932.
Daily Scenarios
Scenario A: If price is able to remain above 6974, then I expect a rally up to the 7017 VAH.
Scenario B: Breaks below the 6968 VAH can bring larger sellers in to target the 6932 POC. Upon a negative unemployment release, we could see continuation down to 6889.
Have a great session, everyone.
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