Daily Plan 12.15.23
Welcome back everyone!
The E-mini rallied up to my 4790 target, posting gains of nearly +20 handles almost twice. The 4771 mark was a significant level today, providing crystal-clear long setups before a midday sell-off. The downside was relatively subdued, but this trend did not extend to the Nasdaq. Turning to the Nasdaq, buyers were notably inactive today, as indicated by the levels sent out last night. There was little to no upside above the long level, leading to ample opportunities for downside trading. The price slipped below the 16806 short level, initially offering 60 handles of selling before plummeting to the short target for an additional +114, where sellers remained active, ultimately resulting in a total of +176 handles of downside. In total, the Nasdaq experienced a 236-handle drop from the level sent out last night. This marked a significant sell-off that originated from my level and has been a recurring theme in nearly every session, whether triggering moves to the upside or downside.
Shifting focus to Oil and Gold, both commodities experienced sharp rallies, with Oil surpassing my expectations and Gold reaching a high just above my long target. Starting with Oil, there was a significant 246 pip move above my 70 long level, offering numerous opportunities for long positions. Similarly, Gold saw a strong rally, breaking past my 2056 target and posting over 20 handles in gains. These movements aligned perfectly with my expectations from last night, and most of the moves were captured based on the long levels and targets set.
In terms of the indices, it's unsurprising that both the Dow and Russell experienced significant recoveries from earlier selling, returning to their highs. I have consistently highlighted these two indices, emphasizing that the positioning shown in the COT Reports indicated a clear trajectory towards higher values. Additionally, the currencies I covered also demonstrated strong movements, with some reaching new highs, while the dollar weakened significantly post-FOMC.
Most of the stocks covered last night experienced a downturn, with some recovering but failing to bounce back through the short levels. This reinforces the idea that volume profile is an invaluable tool for identifying areas of value accumulation and pinpointing where buyers and sellers are most active. Once the short levels were breached, a major intraday sell-off ensued. I highly recommend reviewing the levels posted last night to see how well they have held up against my analysis.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's session, I plan to begin with an analysis of the volume profile setup on the E-mini S&P. This examination will provide crucial insights into market dynamics and inform potential trading strategies for the day ahead.
Breaking Down the Profile
S&P500 (ES)
