Daily Plan 12.14.23
Welcome back everyone!
The Nasdaq experienced a robust rally alongside the Mini, posting an impressive gain of over +300 handles with no decline below the 16559 long level. Similarly, the E-mini also witnessed no selling activity below the 4695 long level, culminating in a +80 handle rally that peaked at 4777 at the time of this writing. Last night, I shared my insights on the volume profile structure of the Mini, which unfolded flawlessly in today's session. I post my thoughts on the structure every night, exclusively for premium subscribers. Here's a summary of what was discussed:
The Low Volume Node (LVN) is set to serve as a critical juncture, demarcating the boundaries between bearish and bullish territories. For long positions, my strategy involves maintaining the price above 4695, targeting a rise towards the Value Area High (VAH) of 4723 in the swing timeframe. However, I plan to set the long target slightly lower, at 4720, in anticipation of potential selling pressure. The profile analysis reveals that value is accumulating at higher levels above the LVN, suggesting a favorable zone for buyers to sustain their activity and perpetuate the uptrend.
The 4723 level, which was pivotal in today's trading, was actually forecasted in Sunday's weekly newsletter, where I anticipated it would be reached this week. Although this target was somewhat conservative, the additional upside is certainly a welcome development.
Gold also experienced a significant rally, surpassing my expectation with a gain of over +50 handles. It moved entirely through a swing timeframe value area, narrowly missing the breach of the next value area low just above. Reflecting on my previous commentary, I had speculated that Gold was approaching a local bottom. This has proven to be an astute observation, as evidenced by the sharp rally from the lows.
Shifting focus to Oil, there was a substantial rally from my identified 68.28 long level, posted last night. This surge propelled prices to my long target of 69.65, which was nearly the High of the Day (HOD).
Stocks, on the other hand, exhibited mixed movements leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement, which triggered significant selling followed by robust recoveries, closing most stocks in the green for the session. While these fluctuations presented challenges for capitalizing on market moves, not all stocks I covered yesterday behaved this way. Apple, for instance, continued its impressive rally, climbing over +4 handles from my long level. Nvidia also experienced a strong rally, achieving +12 handles of upside above the long level. Many other stocks covered in yesterday's newsletter also showed notable movements.
Regarding Adobe (ADBE), my analysis prior to its earnings release was spot-on, as the stock plummeted post-report. My 589.94 short target was reached, with the stock plunging further into the 565 handle range. As of now, the stock has closed right at my level, which is likely to trigger significant activity in option contracts tomorrow.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's session, I plan to begin with an analysis of the volume profile setup on the E-mini S&P. This examination will provide crucial insights into market dynamics and inform potential trading strategies for the day ahead.
Breaking Down the Profile
S&P500 (ES)
